Field notes

Research we would publish whether or not it helped us sell anything.

Most of what gets written in this category is copy. These are the findings that came out of building the models, including the ones that argue against our own pitch.

2026-09-24 · 9 min read

38 doomsday predictions since 1524. None happened. Four killed people.

Every dated end-of-world prediction we could source, what it cost the people who believed it, and the four-step pattern every single one of them follows.

Scheduled 2026-10-01 · 7 min read

More warning does not reduce evacuation traffic. Here is the model that shows why.

A 72-hour hurricane notice peaks at 4.4 times road capacity. An 11-hour emergency broadcast peaks at 4.2. The difference is not the road. It is your place in line.

Scheduled 2026-10-08 · 6 min read

The safest places on Earth are often terrible places to live

Chatham Islands: 84 for nuclear survivability, 47 for livability. Westfjords: two hours of winter daylight. The tension nobody in this category will tell you about.

Scheduled 2026-10-15 · 8 min read

Preppers are not who you think. The data says the difference is an emergency fund.

No political difference. 78 to 90 percent urban and suburban. Education parity. Median income 54,000 versus 48,000. The one variable that actually separates them.