You will not have time
to figure this out later.
Most families have never answered the simplest question: if we had eleven hours, where would we go, and who picks up whom. Refuge Atlas answers it for your actual addresses, using published models, and shows its work.
Free to start. Your addresses never leave your browser.
Heinz von Foerster
World population growth reaches infinity, a mathematical 'doomsday', derived from a hyperbolic fit to historical population data.…
50 days out
Global risk index-- / 100
Composed from USGS, NOAA, NASA and GDACS. Prophecy and folklore excluded by design.
Reading…
Track record38 predictions, 0 correct
Every dated end-of-world prediction we could document from 1524 to 2025, with sources and what each one cost the people who believed it.
Read the method
The road is not the constraint. Your place in line is.
We modeled a mass evacuation using the Bureau of Public Roads volume-delay function, with shadow evacuation included at the rate observed in Hurricane Irma, where 46.4 percent of households outside mandatory zones left anyway.
What came out was not what we expected. Because a queue discharges at a roughly fixed rate, almost everyone who leaves arrives inside the same four-hour band. More warning does not thin the traffic. A 72-hour hurricane notice peaks at 4.4 times capacity; an 11-hour emergency broadcast peaks at 4.2. People leave at the last moment they still believe is safe, whenever that moment is.
What changes enormously is queue position. Two families leaving four hours apart for the same destination came out at number 41 and number 8,288. One was admitted. One was turned away at a facility already over capacity.
That is the entire product in one sentence. Not what you own. When you move, and whether anyone had to be persuaded first.
Four tools that assume you are an adult.
Family Survival Plan
Enter the addresses your family actually moves between. Home, work, the school, your parents' place three hours away. Each one gets scored against every scenario, and the plan builds in front of you as you type.
The Atlas
64 real refuge sites and 162 metros scored across eleven scenarios, from nuclear exchange to long-term livability. Includes the tension nobody else shows you: the safest places on Earth are often terrible places to live.
Exit Window
A simulation that gives you a hard situation and eleven hours. Live migration heat map, highways backing up in red, uncontrollable variables. Most people fail it the first time, which is the point.
Prediction Countdown
Every dated end-of-world claim we could source, on one calendar, with a live countdown and an honest likelihood label. Including the ones that are misattributed, which is most of them.
The honest version.
What does Refuge Atlas actually do?
It takes the addresses your family moves between, home, work, school, the places you visit a few times a year, and runs published physical models against each one. Blast overpressure scaling, fallout plume decay, protection factor by depth, climate livability. The output is a written plan: where each person goes, which route, how long the window is, and what the house you already own gets you.
Is my address stored anywhere?
No. The models run in your browser. Your ZIP codes and addresses are never transmitted to a server and are never stored by us.
Does the risk index include prophecies or UAP reports?
No. The Global Event Risk Index is computed only from official public feeds: USGS seismic data, NOAA weather and space weather, NASA CNEOS and Sentry, and GDACS. Prediction dates and folklore are tracked separately on the countdown calendar, with sources, and are deliberately excluded from the number.
How accurate are doomsday predictions historically?
Refuge Atlas tracks 38 documented dated predictions from 1524 to 2025. The success rate is zero. Several caused real harm: Heaven's Gate killed 39 people in 1997, a Ugandan movement killed roughly 778 in 2000, and followers of Harold Camping spent their savings in 2011. The honest argument for preparedness is not that a prophecy is coming true. It is that hurricanes, grid failures and wildfires arrive on no schedule at all.
What is the Exit Window?
The gap between when you decide to leave and when the road stops being usable. Our traffic model, built on the Bureau of Public Roads volume-delay function with shadow evacuation included, shows that the road is rarely the constraint. Queue position is. Two families leaving four hours apart can end up #41 and #8,288 in line for the same destination.
Start with the free plan.
You will know within ten minutes whether this is useful to you. No card, no account, nothing leaves your browser.