THE BORING LIST Atlas
Preparedness, ordered by how often it pays out

Buy in this order. Nothing here is exciting.

The atlas models ten catastrophes. This page is about the one that actually happens to you: the power goes out for four days, or the water main breaks, or the smoke rolls in, or the road closes. Everything is ranked by expected value, which means how often it pays out multiplied by how much it matters when it does. The bunker is at the bottom for a reason.

Where a link is paid, it says so at the link. No merchant influences the order of this page. The order comes from the livability model in the atlas, and several of the highest-ranked items here are things nobody pays us for. If the best answer is unpaid, that is the one shown.
1 in 4US households lose power 8h+ in a year
$11BUS spend on preparedness, 2023
$54kMedian prepper income. Not a rich market.
3 daysWithout water before it kills you
01

Water

Target spend $180 to $450

First because the clock is shortest. Three days without water, weeks without food. A boil notice happens to millions of Americans every year and a filter that serves a household costs less than a weekend away. Storage before filtration: a filter with nothing to filter is an ornament.

Start here

Gravity filter, household scale

LifeStraw Community · Berkey · Sawyer

Filters for a group with no power and no pumping. Rated in thousands of liters, not hundreds. The single highest expected-value purchase on this page and the one most people skip in favor of a personal straw that filters for one.

$90–400 See options
Start here

Stackable water storage

WaterBrick · food-grade drum · bath bladder

Fifteen gallons per person is a week. Stackable containers beat one big drum because you can move them, and a bath bladder is $30 and fills in the ninety seconds you have before pressure fails.

$30–200 See options

Water test kit

Safe Home · Varify

Tells you whether the well or the stream is worth filtering and whether your filter is still working. Twenty dollars of information that changes what you do.

$20–60 See options

Rainwater capture

Any hardware retailer

Roof area times annual rainfall is a bigger number than people expect. A 150 square meter roof in a 600 mm rainfall year sheds about 90,000 liters. Check your local rules first, because a few places restrict it.

$120–600 See options
02

Heat one room

Target spend $150 to $900

The livability model says heating load is the largest recurring cost of living anywhere cold, and in a multi-day winter outage it is what kills people. The goal is one warm room, not a warm house. Insulating and sealing that room is cheaper than any machine you could buy to heat the whole building.

Start here

Indoor-rated propane heater

Mr. Heater Buddy · Dyna-Glo

Oxygen-depletion sensor and tip-over shutoff, which is what makes it indoor-rated. Heats one room off a 1 lb or 20 lb cylinder. Buy the hose and filter with it, not later.

$90–220 See options
Buy with the heater

Carbon monoxide alarm

Kidde · First Alert

Non-negotiable with any combustion heater, and the cheapest item on this entire page. Battery, not mains, because the scenario you bought the heater for is the one with no mains.

$20–45 See options

Insulation and sealing for one room

Any hardware retailer

Window film, draft excluders, a heavy curtain, foam tape. Under $150 and it cuts the heat you need to make by a third. The cheapest kilowatt-hour is the one you never generate.

$60–180 See options

Sleeping bags rated below your worst night

REI · Kelty · Teton

A bag rated to −7 C is a heating system that needs no fuel and never fails. Rate it to your actual record low, not your average January.

$70–300 See options
03

Power

Target spend $300 to $2,400

Not to run the house. To run a fridge of medication, a CPAP, a phone, a light and a radio. Size it to the things that matter, not to the panel. A 1 kWh station covers most households' critical load for a day, and a folding panel makes it indefinite where the solar resource is decent.

Start here

Portable power station, 1 to 2 kWh

EcoFlow · Jackery · Anker SOLIX · Bluetti

LiFePO4 chemistry, which lasts several thousand cycles instead of several hundred. Check it can pass through while charging and that the output handles your fridge's surge.

$450–1,600 See options

Folding solar panel, 100 to 400 W

Same brands

Turns a battery into a supply. The atlas gives the solar resource for any point on Earth in kWh per square meter per day. Below about 3.0 you need a lot more panel than the box suggests.

$180–900 See options

Hand-crank weather radio

Midland · Eton

NOAA weather band, AM, FM and a USB output. Costs less than a tank of fuel and is how you find out what is actually happening when the network is down.

$30–80 See options

Fuel storage and stabiliser

Any hardware retailer

If you own a generator and no fuel, you own a heavy sculpture. Gasoline degrades in three to six months without stabiliser. Store it legally and rotate it through the car.

$50–160 See options
04

Food, ninety days

Target spend $250 to $900

Ninety days is the honest target for everything except an engineered pathogen. Buy food you already eat and rotate it, because the freeze-dried bucket you never open is a bucket you never checked. Calorie density beats variety, and fat beats everything on a per-kilo basis.

Start here

Staples you already cook

Any grocer · mylar and buckets

Rice, beans, oats, oil, salt, sugar, tinned fish. A year of calories for a family costs a few hundred dollars in this form and roughly ten times that as branded emergency food.

$150–400 See options

Freeze-dried, as the top-up

ReadyWise · Mountain House · Augason Farms

Twenty-five year shelf life and no rotation, which is what you are paying for. Worth it for the go-bag and the last thirty days, not for the first sixty.

$120–600 See options

A way to cook without the grid

Camp stove · rocket stove · Dutch oven

Dry beans need ninety minutes of heat. Check you own the means to apply it, because a pantry you cannot cook is a pantry of raw material.

$40–220 See options

Seed, if you have ground

Open-pollinated, not hybrid

Worthless for ninety days and decisive after. The atlas gives frost-free days for any point, which is the number that decides whether you eat what you grow or merely garnish with it.

$25–90 See options
05

Things that tell you what is true

Target spend $200 to $600

The cheapest way to make a good decision is to measure instead of guess. A survey meter is the single most under-owned item in preparedness. Without one, the decision to come out of shelter is a date on a wall. With one, it is a reading taken twice, twelve hours apart.

Nobody owns one

Radiation survey meter or dosimeter

GQ GMC · Radiacode · surplus CDV-715

Turns the 7:10 rule from a table into your actual schedule. Also the item a shelter is most likely to admit you for, because they need one and almost nobody brings one.

$120–450 See options

Satellite messenger

Garmin inReach · ZOLEO

Works where the towers do not. Two-way text and an SOS from anywhere with sky. Hardware plus a subscription, so price the second year too.

$250–450 + plan See options

GMRS handhelds and a license

Midland · Wouxun

The contingency tier of a PACE plan: no infrastructure, a few kilometers in terrain, more from elevation. One US license covers a whole family for ten years with no exam.

$70–260 See options

Air quality monitor and HEPA

Levoit · Coway · AirGradient

Wildfire smoke is now an annual event across most of the temperate world, and it is the hazard on this page you are most likely to meet this year.

$110–400 See options
06

Medical

Target spend $150 to $500

The most common serious gap is the least dramatic one: a month of the prescription somebody in the house cannot go without. Fill that first, then buy trauma capability, then learn to use it. Equipment without training is theater.

Start here

An extra month of prescriptions

Your pharmacy

Ask about a 90-day fill or a vacation override. Costs a co-pay and closes the single most common fatal gap in household preparedness. Free to ask.

Trauma kit

North American Rescue · MyMedic

Tourniquet, pressure dressing, chest seals, gloves, shears. Buy CAT or SOF-T tourniquets from a real supplier, because the cheap copies fail under load.

$90–280 See options

A Stop the Bleed class

Local hospital or fire service

Usually free, usually two hours, and it is the difference between owning a tourniquet and being able to use one on someone who is bleeding.

Reference that works with no signal

Where There Is No Doctor · Merck Manual

Printed, because the scenario is the one where you cannot look it up. The first is free to download and worth printing.

$0–60 See options
07

What we are not selling you

Target spend $0

A bunker, before the six sections above

Shelters run from $25,000 to $10,000,000 and the whole bunker segment is forecast at about $175 million by 2030, against $11 billion spent annually on preparedness overall. The money is in water, food, power and medical because that is where the events are. If you have done everything above and still want depth, that is a different conversation and we are happy to have it.

An ammunition-first load-out

The systematic review evidence runs the other way. Post-disaster looting is rare and done by isolated individuals, while 70 to 90 percent of an affected population reports hearing looting stories. High social capital predicts household recovery better than wealth or damage severity. Spend the money on things your neighbors will want to trade for and skills they will want to borrow.

Precious metals as a first purchase

Cash works for about two weeks and metal works after that, which means metal is a year-three asset. If you own no water filter and a tube of silver, you have solved the wrong problem in the wrong order.

Anything sold on a countdown timer

Manufactured urgency is the tell. The events on this page have no launch date and no discount window, and a seller who implies otherwise is selling you the feeling rather than the thing.

08

The whole thing on one line

OrderWhatSpendHow often it pays out
1Water storage and a gravity filter$180–450Every boil notice, every outage, every year
2One warm room and a CO alarm$150–900Every winter outage
31–2 kWh of power and a panel$300–2,400Every outage over a few hours
4Ninety days of food you eat anyway$250–900Every supply disruption, every job loss
5Instruments: meter, radio, air quality$200–600Every smoke season, and once in a lifetime
6Prescriptions, trauma kit, a class$150–500Roadside, kitchen, workshop. Constantly.
—Everything else—After the six above are actually done

Roughly $1,230 at the low end covers all six categories. That is less than the entry price of a single shelter berth and it addresses the events that have a real annual probability of happening to you.